Indian Methodology Part 3: Population Control

As it is now well documented, India has a population of well over 1.1 billion people. By 2050 this population is expected to jump to over 1.8 billion.

There are two very split views on this "problem."

The first and most likely the overall western view is that India has too many people and it is harming itself. It is believed by this camp that India will face dire circumstances by 2050. Starvation is rampant. The literacy rate is atrocious for a nation trying to enter the developed world, and the rate of growth of the population isn't helping either of those things along.

The second and (for now) apparently more popular view in India is that the number of people is an asset. The situations that have propitiated this view are short term at best. Recently, India's economy has surged. This is to say (ask any economist) they have gone from being an underdeveloped nation, to a less underdeveloped nation. Those believing that the population is an asset are those believing that everyone in this country is fit for work. Currently India has a plethora of jobs, a booming information technology sector, and a government that is now willing to spend lots of money on scientific endeavors.

After my first few talks with people around the campus (those who are extremely well educated) I was under the impression that many in India felt that India was overpopulated. In fact, most academics I will venture to say do truly believe that. India, to make the understatement of the century, is an enormous country. It's basically it's own south asian europe with the variety of languages (more than the whole of europe), different cultures (again, more than the whole of europe), and magnitude (populous and area). The educated crew of India is certainly concerned about the rapidly growing size of the population. The full implication of what a population of 1.8 billion can bring is unknown, but it doesn't look promising. It is a dire state of affairs that the rising in the population is coming not from those with money and education, but from those without. India's megacities are growing, and the fasting growth is within the slums. To make matters worse, many (not most, not even a simple majority, but many in numbers alone) of the Indian Elite are emmigrating elsewhere. They are going to the USA, UK, Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the rest of the developing world. While this will certainly do marvels for the perception of Indians elsewhere in the world, the home affairs of this nation will not be in such good order.

A very traditional manner of population control in the developing world is not to curb procreation, but to have large families. Large families tend to increase economic stability since the chances are greater that one of the children will be successful and be able to provide some sustenance for the rest. In developed countries this is the first practice to change. Consider for example the American side of my family.
My Grandfather was one of 7, but my mom has far fewer than 12 cousins (2 per child). She is one of two, and her brother, my uncle has no children. Neither my sister or I have plans for children yet, this us subject to change, but you can bet most of the weight of the world against the two of us having a combined 5 or more children (biologically at least, adoption may change that number). On my father's side, he was one of 7, six of whom are surviving. They all have children, but those living in America have 2 children each, and those in Lebanon have more. Of the children born in America or living in America, the numbers of their children are dropping. It is simply a phenomenon experienced in the developed world and not in the developing world.

All of this to say, the control of the population is to grow it until there is economic stability. India does not yet have this said stability, and therefore its population will continue to grow at an enormous rate.

Around Chennai I have been seeing a small smattering of condom advertisements. These are to help with the prevention of disease spread. Having spoken with many Indians from elsewhere in the country I've found that these ads are similar all over India, but the success of condoms has been limited at best.

Here's an interesting anecdote:
The purported location where the condom education was most successful was a small village in Karnataka state (I think it was Karnataka, could be wrong) which is famous for weaving traditional garments and beddings and decorations. Of course, reporters went to check on why condom sales were up so much here, and not up so much elsewhere. It turned out that the weavers were using the lubrication on the condoms and the latex to protect their thumbs. All in all, the education about condoms didn't take like it was meant to.


So what does all this mean for India? Population Control in India is going very much the way it is going in the west. America and Europe have nearly stabilized their population growth. The last reports I heard were that Germany is currently lowest in growth with a replacement rate of 1.2. America is currently listed with a replacement rate of 1.7. Most of the difference comes from immigrants with large families. India, on the other hand is experiencing and will continue to experience a sharper dichotomy where the well educated will not increase their populous and those with nothing will continue to grow. This (in my estimation) will put terrible constraints on the labor force and the economy soon. Some believe this is already about to break India's economy.

My take on the whole situation is that, unless India institutes the "one-child" policy similar to China, dire, dire things will happen. I also believe these consequences are coming MUCH SOONER than 2050. The problem I believe with India is that it will be difficult to convince Muslims (the nearly 200 million here) that only having one child is appropriate behavior. I don't know how the Hindus will see it, but I believe they will have a similar reaction. Trying to ask people, who for generations have known the personal advantages to having large families, to put the good of the society ahead in priority is not an easy task. Perhaps (God and all gods forbid) another famine will occur, and we will be forced to learn the mistake of a too rapidly growing population in a "trial by fire."